This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast. Overview of the national intelligence council report on. The report, otherwise comprehensive and well written, misses or underemphasizes some critical aspects. Against this backdrop, the espas global trends to 2030. Report of the national intelligence council s 2020 project based on consultations with nongovernmental. A publication of the national intelligence council.
The report is intended to stimulate strategic thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the. The national intelligence council gave overall direction to the yearlong effort, assisted by colleagues from other intelligence agencies and offices. Global trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the national intelligence council led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. Global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. In the run up to this summers nominating conventions, both parties frontrunners have intensified their campaign rhetoric about a range of issues, especially foreign policy. How to read the national intelligence councils latest global. National intelligence council puts forth its latest quadrennial assessment of the dynamics driving events around the world. Global trends 2030 has done an admirable job of bringing these technological game changers the military as well as other users will need in the ensuing decades. Global trends 2015 is not a traditional intelligence product based on classic intelligence sources, methods and procedures.
A publication of the national intelligence council by national intelligence council 20151204 paperback january 1, 1831 2. In 2015, the european strategy and policy analysis system espas launched its report global trends to 2030. This detailed work has dozens of indepth blog posts, by experts in their fields. In a new report entitled global trends 2030 alternative worlds pdf large file, the national intelligence council says that due to global economic changes, shifting in investments and the sudden rise of other nations to buck the u. This week, the national intelligence council released its quadrennial report about global trends, and its a sober read. Dec 10, 2012 instead, the national intelligence council paints the picture of a world in which the u. Global trends 2030 office of the director of national intelligence. The global trends report published by the united nations refugee. Past global trends works, correctly foresaw the direction of the vectors. Us national intelligence council global trends 2030. Trends and projections, 19992000, national intelligence council, august 1999. National intelligence council is within the scope of wikiproject espionage, which aims to improve wikipedia s coverage of espionage, intelligence, and related topics. Euiss and is the lead author of this espas report global trends to 2030.
Global trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the national intelligence councilled effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. The atlantic council s brent scowcroft center on international security will host a twoday conference launching the us national intelligence council s nic global trends 2030. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. A publication of the national intelligence council global trends january 2017. This report in some ways shows significant intelligence weaknesses in the us intelligence establishment and the decades old, dangerous, dumbingdown for the actual policy makers, which did not work well in the iraq debacle and will fare far worse in larger global issues in the coming decades. Workshop on information technology in africa, may 2002 3 mb pdf file. Defense department will have to be more flexible in dealing with a fasterpaced multipolar world, according to the global trends 2030 report released yesterday. If you would like to participate, visit the project page, or contribute to the discussion start this article has been rated as startclass on the projects quality scale this article has not yet received a rating on the project. Global trends to 2035 geopolitics and international power this study considers eight economic, societal, and political global trends that will shape the world to 2035, namely an ageing population, fragile globalisation, a technological revolution, climate change, shifting power. Climate change is the most important issue that the gt 2030 downplays. Dec, 2012 i would especially like to acknowledge the work of the latesenior analyst christopher decker who provided critical help with the forecasts on global health andpandemics before his untimely death.
What fate for liberal order in a postwestern world. Global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical. On monday december 10, 2012 the office of the director of national intelligence. As with previous editions, the national intelligence council hopes that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential. National intelligence council releases global trends 2030. We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures, writes the chairman of the national intelligence council nic christopher kojm in the councils latest forwardlooking quadrennial report, global trends 2030. But what we can do is extrapolate insights from current global trends. Recent chinese leadership priorities and their implications for the united states, national intelligence council, 30 june 1999. Governance is getting harder, and the nature of power is changing. Alternative worlds, released by the office of the director of national intelligence, the apex body of 16 us intelligence agencies, says china alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the united states a few years before 2030.
Jan 03, 20 the national intelligence council commissioned a report for upcoming global trends out to the year 2030. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national. The report identifies several global trends that will shape the world in 2030. Challenges and choices for europe report is a contribution to support policy and decisionmakers as they navigate the world into 2030.
Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project is the third unclassified report prepared by the national intelligence council nic in recent years that takes a longterm view of the future. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council. The global trends 2030 report by the national intelligence council proposes a scenario called the non state world in which urbanization, technology and capital accumulation together accelerate. Most forecasts indicate that by 2020 chinas gross national product gnp will. A condensed version of the report is also available 1. National intelligence council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. As with the nics national intelligence council previous global trends reports, we do not seek to. The nic reports to the director of national intelligence in his capacity as head of the intelligence community. How to read the national intelligence councils latest. Alternative worlds open pdf 0 b this report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years.
At the heart of global trends 2030 are four megatrends that it identifies as the most significant trends that will affect the world looking out over a decadeandahalf into the future. Nov 10, 2012 this is the fifth installment in the national intelligence council s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. But chinas power has consistently increased faster than expected. Alternative worlds report and exploring its consequences for us strategy moving forward.
As with the nics national intelligence council previous global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the futurewhich would be an. Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project open pdf 6 mb mapping the global future. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during. Dec 10, 2012 the national intelligence council s global trends 2030 report predicts that by the year 2030, a majority of the worlds population will be out of poverty. A comprehensive reading of the four reports leaves a strong impression that we tend toward underestimation of the rates of change. Thomas fingar presented findings from the national intelligence council report examining global trends up to 2025. This report aims to update and extend that report by including developments that have occurred in european and global geopolitics since then, and will project developments out to 2035. We live in a world of incredible possibilities, thanks to industrial and technological progress, but that same progress is disrupting the statecentric global. Worlds a publication of the national intelligence council. Alternative worlds a publication of the national intelligence council. Although global trends 2030 gt 2030 involved a global process of consultation, the report retains a u.
As with our previous global trends studies, we hope this report stimulates. National intelligence council forecasts megatrends. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years.
The highlevel conference will convene more than 150 participants from the. As with the nics previous global trends reports, we do not. Both the product and the process used to produce it benefited from lessons learned in previous iterations. Sep 17, 20 the chinaus joint working group assessment builds on reports by experts in the two countries, including the us national intelligence councils global trends 2030. We may not be able to provide a linear, predetermined chart from port of departure to port of arrival. Alternative worlds, which the atlantic council helped prepare, and global trends to 2030 and the prospects for chinaus relations, prepared under the direction of ciis and peking. Topics included demographics, climatology, global interconnectedness, and natural. Paradox o f progress a publication of the national intelligence council global trends january 2017 e iiiosiii isbn 9780160936142 to view electronic version. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council a condensed version of the report is also available 1. Dec 10, 2012 the atlantic councils brent scowcroft center on international security will host a twoday conference launching the us national intelligence councils nic global trends 2030. Since 1979, the nic has served a bridge between the intelligence and policy communitiesas well as a facilitator for outreach to outside experts. Chinas economy to outgrow americas by 2030 as world. Industry can seize the high ground by getting ahead of the power curve and anticipating militarys needs in these areas.
We sought out and drew heavily on experts outside the intelligence. The nics most recent global trends report, global trends. Global trends 2030 citizens in an interconnected and. Global trends 2030 rapport du national intelligence council. May 05, 20 this video summarizes the four megatrends as identified in the national intelligence council s report titled global trends 2030. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future as with previous editions, the national intelligence council hopes that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities.
772 1101 119 967 401 1236 1063 495 431 991 484 764 1485 1385 168 383 504 1276 1227 1224 1088 1180 849 677 396 154 58 963 1537 490 460 859 546 1255 1100 605 167 468 181 1454 1125 393 104